Wycombe 2–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

C. Woodrow 52' (pen)

S. Bell 14'

9/6/2025

League One · Round 7Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wycombe49%

×Draw25%

Mansfield Town26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Wycombe

1.61

Mansfield Town

1.10

Wycombe creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

0.98

1.22

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Mansfield Town

1.28

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe+0.31scores more

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Mansfield Town

75%

Draw or Mansfield Town

51%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

80%

Wycombe 2+ goals

48%

Wycombe 3+ goals

22%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

67%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

30%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

65%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 8 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wycombe scores more

49%

level

25%

Mansfield Town scores more

26%

Wycombe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Bell

Wycombe · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

R. Sweeney← B. Cargill

10'

Luke Leahy

14'

S. Bell

24'

T. Roberts← L. Bolton

28'

Ryan Sweeney

45+4'

Jordan Bowery

46'

M. Dickov←

51'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

52'

C. WoodrowPenalty

56'

F. Back← N. Huggins

58'

Cauley Woodrow

67'

B. Fink← C. Woodrow

68'

E. Henderson← S. Bell

75'

A. Quitirna← F. Onyedinma

87'

A. Lewis← N. Moriah-Welsh

87'

J. Gardner←

88'

Ewan Henderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeMansfield

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots11

7Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked5

9Inside Box3

1Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

348Total Passes489

254Accurate Passes402

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2