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Wycombe vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
Preview
15:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
2/20/2027League OneLeague One · Round 32Adams Park
Big match
54%
Wycombe
model favours
54%23%24%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wycombe54%
×Draw23%
Leyton Orient24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.84
Leyton Orient
1.14

Wycombe creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.91
Leyton Orient
1.07

allows per match

Wycombe
1.21
Leyton Orient
1.78

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par
Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
76%
Wycombe or Leyton Orient
77%
Draw or Leyton Orient
46%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
30%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
84%
Wycombe 2+ goals
55%
Wycombe 3+ goals
28%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
32%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
70%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.91 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + Wycombe defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wycombe scores more
54%
level
23%
Leyton Orient scores more
24%

Wycombe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wycombe
Defensively solid
Leyton Orient
Balanced
48%Possession53%
66%Pass accuracy71%
12.2Shots11.3
1.91xGBiggest gap1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WycombeLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Wycombe
1
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 33%
0–24–10–13–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wycombe
LLWWL
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wycombe host Leyton Orient

February 20, 2027: Wycombe take on Leyton Orient in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wycombe host Leyton Orient at Adams Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.