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Wycombe vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
10/26/2024League OneLeague One · Round 14Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wycombe43%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.46
Leyton Orient
1.19

Wycombe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.51
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Wycombe
1.05
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
69%
Wycombe or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
57%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
21%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
77%
Wycombe 2+ goals
43%
Wycombe 3+ goals
18%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
70%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
58%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wycombe scores more
43%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
31%

Wycombe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 3–0 Leyton Orient

Wycombe beat Leyton Orient 3-0 in League One on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.