Wycombe 3–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

D. Taylor 84'

J. Low 68', 15'

R. Sotiriou 86', 36'

8/15/2023

League One · Round 3Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Wycombe56%

×Draw22%

Leyton Orient22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.08

Wycombe

1.88

Leyton Orient

1.08

Wycombe creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Leyton Orient

1.81

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

78%

Wycombe or Leyton Orient

78%

Draw or Leyton Orient

44%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

32%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

85%

Wycombe 2+ goals

56%

Wycombe 3+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

66%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

72%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wycombe scores more

56%

level

22%

Leyton Orient scores more

22%

Wycombe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Low

Wycombe · D

8.7

Match Events

15'

J. Low↳ L. Leahy

36'

R. Sotiriou↳ T. Archibald

42'

Jordan Brown

46'

F. Potts← K. Phillips

50'

Daniel Happe

54'

R. Hunt← J. Pigott

58'

Thomas James

59'

R. Keogh← R. Tafazolli

68'

J. Low↳ L. Leahy

74'

G. McCleary← S. Vokes

74'

J. Graham← G. Moncur

78'

E. Galbraith← J. Brown

82'

84'

86'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeLeyton

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots15

3Corners7

4Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots15

6On Target6

9Off Target4

0Blocked5

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

361Total Passes565

262Accurate Passes471

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Leyton Orient

Wycombe beat Leyton Orient 3-2 in League One on August 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Low (15', 68'), R. Sotiriou (36', 86'), D. Taylor (84').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.

Wycombe vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Leyton Orient