Wycombe 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Wycombe

1 – 0

Leicester

D. Horgan 80'

7/28/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wycombe26%

×Draw26%

Leicester48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.48

Wycombe

1.03

Leicester

1.48

Leicester creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.71

1.25

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Wycombe

1.50

Leicester

1.71

allows per match

Wycombe

1.25

Leicester

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Leicester →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

52%

Wycombe or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

74%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

10%

Leicester wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

64%

Wycombe 2+ goals

28%

Wycombe 3+ goals

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

43%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

36%

Leicester (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.50 + Leicester defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.03

Leicester attack 1.71 + Wycombe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wycombe scores more

26%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

48%

Leicester at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Soumare← K. Dewsbury-Hall

46'

C. Soyuncu← F. Benkovic

46'

R. Ghezzal← H. Choudhury

46'

M. Albrighton← M. Albrighton

46'

R. Pereira← D. Amartey

46'

J. Grimmer← J. Jacobson

46'

A. Akinfenwa← S. Kashket

46'

W. Fofana← B. Nelson

46'

G. McCleary← A. Stewart

46'

S. Kaikai← M. Bloomfield

46'

D. Horgan← D. Horgan

46'

J. Obita← A. Mehmeti

46'

D. Iversen← E. Jakupovic

46'

J. Vardy← K. Iheanacho

46'

P. Daka← J. Maddison

46'

J. McCarthy← A. Samuel

46'

J. Scowen← Trialist

46'

W. Ndidi← K. Sowah

46'

T. Suengchitthawon← T. Suengchitthawon

62'

V. Daley-Campbell← V. Daley-Campbell

76'

D. Stockdale← A. Pryzbek

78'

N. Freeman← Trialist A

80'

D. Horgan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff