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Wycombe vs Ipswich — League One 2025

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
1/1/2020League OneLeague One · Round 25Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wycombe44%
×Draw24%
Ipswich31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.63
Ipswich
1.33

Wycombe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.86
Ipswich
1.60

allows per match

Wycombe
1.07
Ipswich
1.40

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
69%
Wycombe or Ipswich
76%
Draw or Ipswich
56%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
23%
Ipswich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
80%
Wycombe 2+ goals
48%
Wycombe 3+ goals
22%
Ipswich 1+ goals
74%
Ipswich 2+ goals
38%
Ipswich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
59%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.86 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Wycombe defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wycombe scores more
44%
level
24%
Ipswich scores more
31%

Wycombe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 1–1 Ipswich

Wycombe and Ipswich drew 1-1 in League One on January 1, 2020.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.