Wycombe 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

R. Charles-Cook 83'

2/23/2019

League One · Round 34Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Wycombe45%

×Draw26%

Gillingham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Wycombe

1.46

Gillingham

1.13

Wycombe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 99 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

1.08

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

71%

Wycombe or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

55%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

77%

Wycombe 2+ goals

43%

Wycombe 3+ goals

18%

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

31%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

60%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wycombe scores more

45%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

29%

Wycombe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

D. Parrett← B. Bingham

62'

A. Samuel← S. Kashket

66'

Graham Burke

66'

T. Campbell← T. Eaves

71'

N. Freeman← P. Cowan-Hall

78'

R. Charles-Cook← G. Burke

83'

R. Charles-Cook↳ B. Hanlan

87'

N. Tyson← M. Bloomfield

Wycombe

Gillingham

1

12

2

34

33

16

▼

Bingham

5

Ehmer

17

Lopes

9

▼

Eaves

10

▼

Burke

7

A

1

2

3

5

26

10

▼

18

4

20

12

▼

Cowan-Hal

11

▼

Kashket

Manager: G. Ainsworth

62'▲A. Samuel←▼S. Kashket

71'▲N. Freeman←▼P. Cowan-Hall

87'▲N. Tyson←▼M. Bloomfield

Wycombe substitutes

25Samuel22Freeman23Tyson8Bean13Yates15Owens16Harriman

Manager: S. Lovell

45+1'▲D. Parrett←▼B. Bingham

66'▲T. Campbell←▼T. Eaves

78'▲R. Charles-Cook←▼G. Burke

Gillingham substitutes

8Parrett14Campbell11Charles-Cook13Reilly15List20Oldaker30Hadler