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Wycombe vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
1/1/2025League OneLeague One · Round 24Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wycombe68%
×Draw18%
Exeter City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
2.44
Exeter City
1.05

Wycombe creates 132% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wycombe
2.18
Exeter City
0.95

allows per match

Wycombe
1.16
Exeter City
2.69

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par
Exeter City+0.25scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
85%
Wycombe or Exeter City
82%
Draw or Exeter City
32%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
45%
Exeter City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
91%
Wycombe 2+ goals
70%
Wycombe 3+ goals
43%
Exeter City 1+ goals
65%
Exeter City 2+ goals
28%
Exeter City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
82%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 2.18 + Exeter City defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.44

Exeter City attack 0.95 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wycombe scores more
68%
level
18%
Exeter City scores more
15%

Wycombe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 2–1 Exeter City

Wycombe beat Exeter City 2-1 in League One on January 1, 2025.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.