Wycombe 1–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

C. Campbell 2'

K. McDonald 68'

3/4/2023

League One · Round 35Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe59%

×Draw22%

Exeter City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.06

Wycombe

1.98

Exeter City

1.06

Wycombe creates 87% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

1.02

1.11

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Exeter City

1.02

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Exeter City

2.03

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

80%

Wycombe or Exeter City

78%

Draw or Exeter City

41%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

35%

Exeter City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

86%

Wycombe 2+ goals

59%

Wycombe 3+ goals

31%

Exeter City 1+ goals

65%

Exeter City 2+ goals

29%

Exeter City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

75%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.98

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wycombe scores more

59%

level

22%

Exeter City scores more

20%

Wycombe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

K. McDonald

Exeter City · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

C. Campbell

62'

J. Stansfield← R. Harper

63'

B. Hanlan← G. McCleary

68'

K. McDonald

70'

N. Freeman← C. Campbell

75'

J. White← H. Kite

78'

Alex Hartridge

80'

Josh Key

83'

Pierce Sweeney

90+1'

J. Pattenden← J. Scowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeExeter

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots16

2Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

1On Target4

4Off Target10

4Blocked2

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

313Total Passes393

187Accurate Passes280

60%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3