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Wycombe vs Ebbsfleet United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wycombe37%
×Draw23%
Ebbsfleet United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.65
Ebbsfleet United
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.50
Ebbsfleet United
2.20

allows per match

Wycombe
1.25
Ebbsfleet United
1.80

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Ebbsfleet United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Ebbsfleet United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
60%
Wycombe or Ebbsfleet United
77%
Draw or Ebbsfleet United
63%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
18%
Ebbsfleet United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
81%
Wycombe 2+ goals
49%
Wycombe 3+ goals
23%
Ebbsfleet United 1+ goals
82%
Ebbsfleet United 2+ goals
52%
Ebbsfleet United 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
48%
Ebbsfleet United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ebbsfleet United away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.50 + Ebbsfleet United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ebbsfleet United attack 2.20 + Wycombe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wycombe scores more
37%
level
23%
Ebbsfleet United scores more
40%

Ebbsfleet United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ebbsfleet United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Ebbsfleet United

Wycombe beat Ebbsfleet United 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.