Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wycombe vs Derby — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
2/11/2023League OneLeague One · Round 31Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wycombe37%
×Draw27%
Derby36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.25
Derby
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 159 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.51
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Wycombe
1.05
Derby
0.98

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
64%
Wycombe or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
63%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
16%
Derby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
71%
Wycombe 2+ goals
36%
Wycombe 3+ goals
13%
Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
34%
Derby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
51%
Derby (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Derby attack 1.39 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wycombe scores more
37%
level
27%
Derby scores more
36%

Wycombe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wycombe 3 – 2 Derby

Wycombe beat Derby 3-2 in League One on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.