Wycombe 0–3 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

4/29/2023

League One · Round 45Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wycombe50%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.03

Wycombe

1.59

Cheltenham

1.03

Wycombe creates 54% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 69 away

1.51

creates per match

1.01

1.05

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wycombe

1.51

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Wycombe

1.05

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

75%

Wycombe or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

50%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

80%

Wycombe 2+ goals

47%

Wycombe 3+ goals

21%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

64%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

28%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

67%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wycombe scores more

50%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

25%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff