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Wycombe vs Charlton — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
L. Leahy 7' (pen)
4/27/2024League OneLeague One · Round 46Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Wycombe42%
×Draw27%
Charlton31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.39
Charlton
1.15

Wycombe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 143 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.53
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Wycombe
1.08
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
69%
Wycombe or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
58%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
20%
Charlton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
75%
Wycombe 2+ goals
40%
Wycombe 3+ goals
16%
Charlton 1+ goals
68%
Charlton 2+ goals
32%
Charlton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
58%
Charlton (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Charlton attack 1.22 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wycombe scores more
42%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
31%

Wycombe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. LeahyWycombeWycombe · D
8.2

Match Events

7'
L. LeahyPenalty
45+2'
Kayne Ramsay
46'
George Dobson
46'
K. LuaLua← L. Ness
46'
T. Campbell← K. Anderson
46'
L. Fiorini← A. May
57'
D. Wheeler← G. McCleary
57'
J. Jacobson← D. Taylor
57'
B. Lubala← K. Sadlier
57'
C. Aneke← D. Kanu
61'
Jack Grimmer
78'
S. Vokes← R. Kone
80'
Tyreeq Bakinson
82'
Lewis Fiorini
86'
Chuks Aneke
90+5'
Matt Butcher
90+1'
R. Tafazolli← J. Grimmer

Possession

41%Wycombe

Shots

11Wycombe

Pass accuracy

45%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeCharlton
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots9
4Corners5
12Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target1
3Off Target6
4Blocked2
7Inside Box3
4Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
302Total Passes436
175Accurate Passes306
58%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards5
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Charlton

Wycombe beat Charlton 1-0 in League One on April 27, 2024.

Goals: L. Leahy (7' pen).

Charlton controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.