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Wycombe vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
Preview
19:45
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
1/19/2027League OneLeague One · Round 26Adams Park
Big match
53%
Wycombe
model favours
53%24%23%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Wycombe53%
×Draw24%
Cambridge United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.66
Cambridge United
0.99

Wycombe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 92 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.53
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Wycombe
1.08
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
77%
Wycombe or Cambridge United
76%
Draw or Cambridge United
47%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
29%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
81%
Wycombe 2+ goals
49%
Wycombe 3+ goals
23%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
63%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
26%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
70%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wycombe scores more
53%
level
24%
Cambridge United scores more
23%

Wycombe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Wycombe play Attack-heavy, Cambridge United Direct / counter-attacking
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wycombe
Attack-heavy
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession44%
67%Pass accuracy65%
12.3ShotsBiggest gap10.7
1.86xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WycombeCambridge United

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Wycombe
3
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 75%
1–12–11–10–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wycombe
LLWWL
United
WWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wycombe host Cambridge United

January 19, 2027: Wycombe take on Cambridge United in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wycombe host Cambridge United at Adams Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.