Wycombe 0–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

10/31/2023

League One · Round 7Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Wycombe53%

×Draw24%

Cambridge United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.99

Wycombe

1.66

Cambridge United

0.99

Wycombe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 92 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

77%

Wycombe or Cambridge United

76%

Draw or Cambridge United

47%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

29%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

81%

Wycombe 2+ goals

49%

Wycombe 3+ goals

23%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

63%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

26%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

70%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wycombe scores more

53%

level

24%

Cambridge United scores more

23%

Wycombe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

F. Potts

Wycombe · M

7.7

Match Events

41'

44'

62'

64'

77'

J. Lankester← G. Thomas

77'

J. Cousins← A. May

79'

K. Sadlier← D. Taylor

79'

T. De Barr← B. Hanlan

83'

88'

90+2'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeCambridge

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots8

8Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target1

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

471Total Passes334

354Accurate Passes202

75%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1