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Wycombe vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
2/18/2025League OneLeague One · Round 31Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Wycombe50%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.54
Bristol Rovers
0.99

Wycombe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 133 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.51
Bristol Rovers
0.94

allows per match

Wycombe
1.05
Bristol Rovers
1.58

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
76%
Wycombe or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
50%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
26%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
79%
Wycombe 2+ goals
45%
Wycombe 3+ goals
20%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
63%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
26%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
67%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wycombe scores more
50%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
24%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 2–0 Bristol Rovers

Wycombe beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 in League One on February 18, 2025.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.