Wycombe 2–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol Rovers

L. Wing 48'

D. Wheeler 22'

J. Coburn 4'

12/26/2022

League One · Round 23Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Wycombe50%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Wycombe

1.56

Bristol Rovers

1.02

Wycombe creates 53% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 131 away

1.53

creates per match

0.95

1.08

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

75%

Wycombe or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

50%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

79%

Wycombe 2+ goals

46%

Wycombe 3+ goals

21%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

64%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

27%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

67%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wycombe scores more

50%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

25%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Wheeler

Wycombe · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

J. Coburn↳ A. Collins

8'

Bobby Thomas

13'

Jordan Obita

22'

D. Wheeler↳ A. Mehmeti

35'

Jack Grimmer

45+2'

Lewis Gibson

48'

L. Wing

58'

S. Finley← S. Sinclair

66'

Lewis Wing

69'

L. McCormick← J. Marquis

78'

C. Thompson← L. Wing

82'

R. Loft← L. Gibson

85'

N. Freeman← A. Mehmeti

90+3'

B. Hanlan← G. McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBristol

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots14

3Corners7

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target5

6Off Target6

4Blocked3

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

259Total Passes412

153Accurate Passes299

59%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1