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Wycombe vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
A. Akinfenwa 90+3' (pen)
U. Ikpeazu 65'
T. Bakinson 28'
4/21/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe34%
×Draw28%
Bristol City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.11
Bristol City
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 188 away

creates per match

Wycombe
0.74
Bristol City
1.15

allows per match

Wycombe
1.22
Bristol City
1.49

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
62%
Wycombe or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
66%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
14%
Bristol City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
67%
Wycombe 2+ goals
30%
Wycombe 3+ goals
10%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
47%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wycombe scores more
34%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
38%

Bristol City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
U. IkpeazuWycombeWycombe · F
8.0

Match Events

28'
T. Bakinson↳ Á. Nagy
58'
A. Mehmeti← D. Adeniran
58'
D. Wheeler← G. McCleary
65'
U. Ikpeazu↳ A. Mehmeti
74'
S. Janneh← N. Wells
75'
D. Horgan← F. Onyedinma
76'
A. Semenyo← Á. Nagy
79'
A. Akinfenwa← A. Muskwe
79'
A. Pattison← C. Thompson
81'
Alexander Pattison
85'
K. Palmer← H. Lansbury
90+3'
A. AkinfenwaPenalty

Possession

51%Wycombe

Shots

22Wycombe

Pass accuracy

50%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeBristol
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots9
5Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots9
6On Target3
6Off Target5
10Blocked1
15Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
312Total Passes308
171Accurate Passes170
55%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Wycombe vs Bristol City

Wycombe beat Bristol City 2-1 in Championship on April 21, 2021.

Goals: T. Bakinson (28'), U. Ikpeazu (65'), A. Akinfenwa (90+3' pen).

Wycombe controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.