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Wycombe vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
F. Onyedinma 47'
4/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe33%
×Draw29%
Blackburn38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.08
Blackburn
1.19

Blackburn creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 194 away

creates per match

Wycombe
0.74
Blackburn
1.15

allows per match

Wycombe
1.22
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
62%
Wycombe or Blackburn
71%
Draw or Blackburn
67%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
13%
Blackburn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
66%
Wycombe 2+ goals
29%
Wycombe 3+ goals
10%
Blackburn 1+ goals
70%
Blackburn 2+ goals
33%
Blackburn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
46%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wycombe scores more
33%
level
29%
Blackburn scores more
38%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. JacobsonWycombeWycombe · D
8.3

Match Events

16'
D. Adeniran← D. Gape
25'
Lewis Holtby
42'
R. Nyambe← J. Rankin-Costello
47'
F. Onyedinma↳ J. Jacobson
57'
S. Downing← L. Holtby
58'
T. Dolan← B. Brereton
72'
B. Johnson← H. Elliott
72'
J. Buckley← T. Trybull
84'
D. Horgan← A. Mehmeti
85'
Curtis Thompson
90+1'
A. Samuel← A. Muskwe
90+1'
A. Akinfenwa← U. Ikpeazu

Possession

30%Wycombe

Shots

9Wycombe

Pass accuracy

40%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeBlackburn
Overview
30%Possession70%
9Total Shots11
7Corners4
17Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots11
2On Target2
1Off Target8
6Blocked1
8Inside Box9
1Outside Box2
Passing
30%Possession70%
221Total Passes509
116Accurate Passes395
52%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Championship: Wycombe 1–0 Blackburn

Wycombe beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on April 2, 2021.

Goals: F. Onyedinma (47').

Blackburn controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.