Wuxi Wugou 1–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Wuxi Wugou

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

6/18/2023

League One · Round 10Wuxi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wuxi Wugou33%

×Draw26%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuxi WugouExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.43

Wuxi Wugou

1.25

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.43

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

1.03

creates per match

1.57

1.28

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Wuxi Wugou

1.03

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.57

allows per match

Wuxi Wugou

1.28

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuxi Wugou ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wuxi Wugou or draw

59%

Wuxi Wugou or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

74%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

67%

Winning margin

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+

14%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals

71%

Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals

36%

Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals

13%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

42%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)

44%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuxi Wugou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.03 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wuxi Wugou scores more

33%

level

26%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

41%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff