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Wuxi Wugou vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2026

Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
5/21/2023League OneLeague One · Round 6Wuxi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wuxi Wugou37%
×Draw29%
Guangxi Baoyun34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuxi Wugou
1.14
Guangxi Baoyun
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 63 away

creates per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.03
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Wuxi Wugou
1.28
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuxi Wugou ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wuxi Wugou or draw
66%
Wuxi Wugou or Guangxi Baoyun
71%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
63%

Winning margin

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
15%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
68%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
32%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
11%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
66%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
29%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
52%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuxi Wugou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.03 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wuxi Wugou scores more
37%
level
29%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
34%

Wuxi Wugou at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wuxi Wugou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuxi Wugou vs Guangxi Baoyun

Guangxi Baoyun beat Wuxi Wugou 2-1 in League One on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Wuxi Sports Center in Wuxi.