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Würzburger Kickers vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Würzburger Kickers67%
×Draw16%
SG Wattenscheid 0917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.92
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.42

Würzburger Kickers creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
3.33
SG Wattenscheid 09
2.00

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.83
SG Wattenscheid 09
2.50

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
83%
Würzburger Kickers or SG Wattenscheid 09
84%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
33%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
47%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
94%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
78%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
55%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
76%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
41%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
80%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 3.33 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 2.00 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
67%
level
16%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
17%

Würzburger Kickers at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger Kickers vs SG Wattenscheid 09

Würzburger Kickers beat SG Wattenscheid 09 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.