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Würzburger Kickers vs Schwaben Augsburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
9/23/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 10Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Würzburger Kickers65%
×Draw20%
Schwaben Augsburg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.17
Schwaben Augsburg
0.94

Würzburger Kickers creates 131% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
2.76
Schwaben Augsburg
1.11

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.76
Schwaben Augsburg
1.58

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
85%
Würzburger Kickers or Schwaben Augsburg
80%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
35%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
42%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
89%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
64%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
36%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
61%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
24%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
81%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.17

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.11 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
65%
level
20%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
15%

Würzburger Kickers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger Kickers vs Schwaben Augsburg

Würzburger Kickers and Schwaben Augsburg drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 23, 2025.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wurzburger.