Würzburger Kickers 1–0 Memmingen: Result & Stats

Würzburger Kickers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Memmingen

10/4/2025

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 12Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Würzburger Kickers65%

×Draw19%

Memmingen16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchMemmingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.00

Würzburger Kickers

2.26

Memmingen

1.00

Würzburger Kickers creates 126% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

2.76

creates per match

1.24

0.76

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers

2.76

Memmingen

1.24

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers

0.76

Memmingen

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Memmingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Memmingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw

84%

Würzburger Kickers or Memmingen

81%

Draw or Memmingen

35%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+

42%

Memmingen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals

89%

Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals

66%

Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals

39%

Memmingen 1+ goals

63%

Memmingen 2+ goals

26%

Memmingen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

81%

Memmingen (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Memmingen away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Memmingen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.26

Memmingen attack 1.24 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more

65%

level

19%

Memmingen scores more

16%

Würzburger Kickers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff