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Würzburger Kickers vs FSV Mainz 05 II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
CANC
13:00
FSV Mainz 05 II
FSV Mainz 05 II
2/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Würzburger Kickers42%
×Draw21%
FSV Mainz 05 II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
1.97
FSV Mainz 05 II
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
3.33
FSV Mainz 05 II
2.80

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.83
FSV Mainz 05 II
0.60

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
FSV Mainz 05 II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

FSV Mainz 05 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
64%
Würzburger Kickers or FSV Mainz 05 II
79%
Draw or FSV Mainz 05 II
58%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
23%
FSV Mainz 05 II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
86%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
58%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
31%
FSV Mainz 05 II 1+ goals
84%
FSV Mainz 05 II 2+ goals
54%
FSV Mainz 05 II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
54%
FSV Mainz 05 II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

FSV Mainz 05 II away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 3.33 + FSV Mainz 05 II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

FSV Mainz 05 II attack 2.80 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
42%
level
21%
FSV Mainz 05 II scores more
36%

Würzburger Kickers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Würzburger Kickers vs FSV Mainz 05 II — Match Preview

Würzburger Kickers face FSV Mainz 05 II on February 1, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Würzburger Kickers host FSV Mainz 05 II at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.