Würzburger Kickers 3–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Würzburger Kickers

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Würzburger Kickers68%

×Draw17%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.08

Würzburger Kickers

2.50

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.08

Würzburger Kickers creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

3.33

creates per match

1.33

0.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers

3.33

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.33

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers

0.83

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw

85%

Würzburger Kickers or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

83%

Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

32%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+

46%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals

92%

Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals

71%

Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals

45%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals

66%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals

29%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

82%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 3.33 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 1.33 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more

68%

level

17%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more

15%

Würzburger Kickers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff