Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Würzburger Kickers vs Austria Lustenau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
CANC
12:00
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
2/4/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Am Muthenhölzle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Würzburger Kickers69%
×Draw16%
Austria Lustenau15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.88
Austria Lustenau
1.31

Würzburger Kickers creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
3.33
Austria Lustenau
1.79

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.83
Austria Lustenau
2.43

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
85%
Würzburger Kickers or Austria Lustenau
84%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
31%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
49%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
94%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
78%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
54%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
73%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
38%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
82%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 3.33 + Austria Lustenau defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.88

Austria Lustenau attack 1.79 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
69%
level
16%
Austria Lustenau scores more
15%

Würzburger Kickers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Würzburger Kickers host Austria Lustenau

February 4, 2025: Würzburger Kickers take on Austria Lustenau in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Würzburger Kickers host Austria Lustenau at Kunstrasenplatz Am Muthenhölzle.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.