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Würzburger FV vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
A. Istrefi 45+1'
5/3/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Würzburger FV56%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Münchberg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
2.13
Eintracht Münchberg
1.29

Würzburger FV creates 65% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.55
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.65
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
77%
Würzburger FV or Eintracht Münchberg
79%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
44%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
34%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
88%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
63%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
35%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
72%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
37%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
71%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.55 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.13

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Würzburger FV defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
56%
level
21%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
23%

Würzburger FV at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
A. Istrefi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger FV vs Eintracht Münchberg

Würzburger FV beat Eintracht Münchberg 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Istrefi (45+1').

The match was played at Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage in Würzburg.