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Würzburger FV vs Donaustauf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Donaustauf
Donaustauf
9/10/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Würzburger FV41%
×Draw23%
Donaustauf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
1.73
Donaustauf
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.53
Donaustauf
1.63

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.63
Donaustauf
1.94

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Donaustauf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Donaustauf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
63%
Würzburger FV or Donaustauf
77%
Draw or Donaustauf
59%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
21%
Donaustauf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
52%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
25%
Donaustauf 1+ goals
80%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
48%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
53%
Donaustauf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Donaustauf away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + Donaustauf defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Donaustauf attack 1.63 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
41%
level
23%
Donaustauf scores more
37%

Würzburger FV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Würzburger FV 3–1 Donaustauf

Würzburger FV beat Donaustauf 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage in Würzburg.