Würzburger FV 2–5 Coburg: Result & Stats

Würzburger FV

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Coburg

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Würzburger FV46%

×Draw22%

Coburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger FVExpected goals in this matchCoburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.58

Würzburger FV

1.94

Coburg

1.58

Würzburger FV creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.53

creates per match

1.53

1.63

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Würzburger FV

1.53

Coburg

1.53

allows per match

Würzburger FV

1.63

Coburg

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Coburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw

68%

Würzburger FV or Coburg

78%

Draw or Coburg

54%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

26%

Coburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

86%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

58%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

30%

Coburg 1+ goals

79%

Coburg 2+ goals

47%

Coburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

59%

Coburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Coburg attack 1.53 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Würzburger FV scores more

46%

level

22%

Coburg scores more

32%

Würzburger FV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff