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Würzburger FV vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
Preview
16:15
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
4/27/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30
Big match
38%
Würzburger FV
model favours
38%24%38%
1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Würzburger FV38%
×Draw24%
Bayern Hof38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger FV
1.58
Bayern Hof
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Würzburger FV
1.53
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Würzburger FV
1.63
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw
62%
Würzburger FV or Bayern Hof
76%
Draw or Bayern Hof
62%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+
19%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals
79%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
47%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
21%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
79%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
46%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
50%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.53 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Würzburger FV defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Würzburger FV scores more
38%
level
24%
Bayern Hof scores more
38%

Würzburger FV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FV
DLWW
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Würzburger FV vs Bayern Hof — Match Preview

Würzburger FV face Bayern Hof on April 27, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.