Würzburger FV 0–4 Bayern Hof: Result & Stats

Würzburger FV

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Bayern Hof

M. Ekui 90+2'

H. Durkan 60'

K. Popowicz 36'

Y. Frey 18'

5/11/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 37Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Würzburger FV39%

×Draw24%

Bayern Hof38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Würzburger FVExpected goals in this matchBayern Hof

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.57

Würzburger FV

1.59

Bayern Hof

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.55

creates per match

1.49

1.65

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Würzburger FV

1.55

Bayern Hof

1.49

allows per match

Würzburger FV

1.65

Bayern Hof

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger FV ↓

Bayern Hof →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Würzburger FV or draw

62%

Würzburger FV or Bayern Hof

76%

Draw or Bayern Hof

61%

Winning margin

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

19%

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

80%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

47%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

21%

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

79%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

46%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

51%

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger FV at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger FV attack 1.55 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Würzburger FV defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Würzburger FV scores more

39%

level

24%

Bayern Hof scores more

38%

Würzburger FV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Würzburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Y. Frey

36'

K. Popowicz

60'

H. Durkan

90+2'

M. Ekui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff