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Wuppertaler SV vs SC Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wuppertaler SV
Wuppertaler SV
FT
2 – 2
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wuppertaler SV50%
×Draw22%
SC Velbert27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuppertaler SV
1.94
SC Velbert
1.38

Wuppertaler SV creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Wuppertaler SV
1.88
SC Velbert
1.25

allows per match

Wuppertaler SV
1.50
SC Velbert
2.00

finishing

Wuppertaler SV+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuppertaler SV ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wuppertaler SV or draw
73%
Wuppertaler SV or SC Velbert
78%
Draw or SC Velbert
50%

Winning margin

Wuppertaler SV wins by 2+
29%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wuppertaler SV 1+ goals
86%
Wuppertaler SV 2+ goals
58%
Wuppertaler SV 3+ goals
30%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
75%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
40%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wuppertaler SV (draw refunded)
65%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuppertaler SV at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuppertaler SV attack 1.88 + SC Velbert defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

SC Velbert attack 1.25 + Wuppertaler SV defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wuppertaler SV scores more
50%
level
22%
SC Velbert scores more
27%

Wuppertaler SV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wuppertaler SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuppertaler SV vs SC Velbert

Wuppertaler SV and SC Velbert drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl in Wuppertal.