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Wulfrath vs SSVg Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wulfrath
Wulfrath
FT
0 – 3
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wulfrath14%
×Draw13%
SSVg Velbert73%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wulfrath
1.67
SSVg Velbert
3.77

SSVg Velbert creates 126% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wulfrath
1.33
SSVg Velbert
2.20

allows per match

Wulfrath
5.33
SSVg Velbert
2.00

finishing

Wulfrath+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wulfrath ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Wulfrath or draw
27%
Wulfrath or SSVg Velbert
87%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
86%

Winning margin

Wulfrath wins by 2+
6%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Wulfrath 1+ goals
81%
Wulfrath 2+ goals
50%
Wulfrath 3+ goals
23%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
97%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
88%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Wulfrath (draw refunded)
16%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wulfrath at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wulfrath attack 1.33 + SSVg Velbert defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

SSVg Velbert attack 2.20 + Wulfrath defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Wulfrath scores more
14%
level
13%
SSVg Velbert scores more
73%

SSVg Velbert at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wulfrath vs SSVg Velbert

SSVg Velbert beat Wulfrath 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.