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Wulfrath vs Cronenberger SC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wulfrath
Wulfrath
FT
4 – 6
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wulfrath19%
×Draw14%
Cronenberger SC67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wulfrath
2.50
Cronenberger SC
4.50

Cronenberger SC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wulfrath
1.33
Cronenberger SC
3.67

allows per match

Wulfrath
5.33
Cronenberger SC
3.67

finishing

Wulfrath+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wulfrath ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–34%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
90%10%4.5
79%21%

Double chance

Wulfrath or draw
33%
Wulfrath or Cronenberger SC
86%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
81%

Winning margin

Wulfrath wins by 2+
9%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Wulfrath 1+ goals
92%
Wulfrath 2+ goals
71%
Wulfrath 3+ goals
45%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
99%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
93%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
79%

Draw no bet

Wulfrath (draw refunded)
22%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wulfrath at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 3.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wulfrath attack 1.33 + Cronenberger SC defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Cronenberger SC attack 3.67 + Wulfrath defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Wulfrath scores more
19%
level
14%
Cronenberger SC scores more
67%

Cronenberger SC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wulfrath vs Cronenberger SC

Cronenberger SC beat Wulfrath 6-4 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.