Wuhan Zall 1–0 Yanbian Tigers FC: Result & Stats

Wuhan Zall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yanbian Tigers FC

5/13/2018

League One · Round 11Xinhua Road Sports Center (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuhan Zall60%

×Draw23%

Yanbian Tigers FC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchYanbian Tigers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.77

Wuhan Zall

1.73

Yanbian Tigers FC

0.77

Wuhan Zall creates 125% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.27

creates per match

0.87

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

2.27

Yanbian Tigers FC

0.87

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

0.67

Yanbian Tigers FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Yanbian Tigers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

84%

Wuhan Zall or Yanbian Tigers FC

77%

Draw or Yanbian Tigers FC

40%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

34%

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

82%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

52%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

25%

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals

54%

Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals

18%

Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

79%

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Yanbian Tigers FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 0.87 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

60%

level

23%

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more

16%

Wuhan Zall at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff