Wuhan Zall 3–0 Xinjiang Tianshan: Result & Stats

Wuhan Zall

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

4/22/2018

League One · Round 7Zhongnan University Stadium (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuhan Zall73%

×Draw17%

Xinjiang Tianshan9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.65

Wuhan Zall

2.23

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.65

Wuhan Zall creates 243% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 71 away

2.27

creates per match

0.63

0.67

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

2.27

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

0.67

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

91%

Wuhan Zall or Xinjiang Tianshan

83%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

27%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

49%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

89%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

65%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

38%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

48%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

14%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

89%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.18 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.23

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

73%

level

17%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

9%

Wuhan Zall at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff