Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
12/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Dongxihu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wuhan Zall40%
×Draw26%
Tianjin Teda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.38
Tianjin Teda
1.25

Wuhan Zall creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 120 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
1.24
Tianjin Teda
1.11

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
1.39
Tianjin Teda
1.52

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
66%
Wuhan Zall or Tianjin Teda
74%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
60%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
19%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
75%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
40%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
16%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
71%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
36%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
54%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
40%
level
26%
Tianjin Teda scores more
34%

Wuhan Zall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Wuhan Zall 0–3 Tianjin Teda

Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Zall 3-0 in Super League on December 14, 2022.

The match was played at Dongxihu Sports Centre in Wuhan.