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Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
5/25/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wuhan Zall42%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.57
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

Wuhan Zall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
1.24
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
1.39
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
66%
Wuhan Zall or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
58%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
21%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
79%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
46%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
21%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
41%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
55%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
42%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
34%

Wuhan Zall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Wuhan Zall 2–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Wuhan Zall beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-1 in Super League on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.