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Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
12/12/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 1Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wuhan Zall45%
×Draw24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.65
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32

Wuhan Zall creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
1.24
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
1.39
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
69%
Wuhan Zall or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
76%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
55%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
81%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
49%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
73%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
38%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
60%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
45%
level
24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
31%

Wuhan Zall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Wuhan Zall beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-2 in Super League on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.