Wuhan Zall 2–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.: Result & Stats

Wuhan Zall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

J. Kouassi 37' (pen), 15'

Muriqui 45+1' (pen)

8/7/2020

Super League · Round 3Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wuhan Zall45%

×Draw24%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.32

Wuhan Zall

1.65

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.32

Wuhan Zall creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

1.24

creates per match

1.25

1.39

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

1.24

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.25

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

1.39

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

69%

Wuhan Zall or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

76%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

55%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

81%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

49%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

73%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

38%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

60%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

45%

level

24%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

31%

Wuhan Zall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Kouassi

Wuhan Zall · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

J. Kouassi↳ Léo Baptistão

37'

J. KouassiPenalty

42'

Matheus Nascimento← Rômulo

42'

Zheng Zhiyun← Ma Chongchong

43'

Chen Zitong← Deng Yubiao

45'

Hu Jinghang

45+1'

MuriquiPenalty

49'

Liao Chengjian

59'

Yi Liu

62'

Zhang Chenglin← Liu Yi

63'

Wang Kai← Li Hang

72'

Jiang Zilei← Hu Jinghang

79'

E. Gnahoré← J. Kouassi

82'

Liu Xinyu← Zang Yifeng

84'

Zhiyun Zheng

90'

Peng Wang

90+2'

Piao Shihao← Liao Chengjian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanShijiazhuang

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots14

1Corners9

14Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots14

3On Target7

2Off Target3

1Blocked4

5Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

413Total Passes308

352Accurate Passes242

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0