Wuhan Zall 2–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.: Result & Stats

Wuhan Zall

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

5/9/2018

League One · Round 10Xinhua Road Sports Center (Wuhan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wuhan Zall58%

×Draw22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan ZallExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.06

Wuhan Zall

1.94

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.06

Wuhan Zall creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

2.27

creates per match

1.46

0.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wuhan Zall

2.27

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.46

allows per match

Wuhan Zall

0.67

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw

80%

Wuhan Zall or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

78%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

42%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

34%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

86%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

58%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

30%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

65%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

29%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

74%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 2.27 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.46 + Wuhan Zall defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more

58%

level

22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

20%

Wuhan Zall at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff