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Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
8/17/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wuhan Zall42%
×Draw25%
Chongqing Lifan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.51
Chongqing Lifan
1.31

Wuhan Zall creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 50 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
1.24
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
1.39
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
67%
Wuhan Zall or Chongqing Lifan
75%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
58%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
21%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
78%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
44%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
19%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
73%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
38%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
56%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
42%
level
25%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
33%

Wuhan Zall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Zall vs Chongqing Lifan

Wuhan Zall beat Chongqing Lifan 2-0 in Super League on August 17, 2020.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.