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Wuhan Three Towns vs Wuhan Zall — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
7/8/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Puwan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns49%
×Draw24%
Wuhan Zall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.73
Wuhan Zall
1.21

Wuhan Three Towns creates 43% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Wuhan Zall
1.04

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Wuhan Zall
1.68

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
73%
Wuhan Three Towns or Wuhan Zall
76%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
51%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
27%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
82%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
52%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
25%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
70%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
34%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
65%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
49%
level
24%
Wuhan Zall scores more
27%

Wuhan Three Towns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 5–0 Wuhan Zall

Wuhan Three Towns beat Wuhan Zall 5-0 in Super League on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Puwan Stadium in Dalian.