Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Wuhan Three Towns59%
Tianjin Teda20%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wuhan Three Towns creates 85% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wuhan Three Towns ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 5 matches
Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.06 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.02 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.04
Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Wuhan Three Towns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Better City
Beijing Guoan
Shandong LunengTianjin Teda
Hangzhou Greentown
Henan Jianye
Changchun Yatai
Qingdao Youth IslandWuhan Three Towns
Qingdao Jonoon
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Sichuan Jiuniu
Meizhou Kejia
Nantong ZhiyunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Wuhan Three Towns host Tianjin Teda on Friday, 26 April 2024 at 11:35. The match is part of the Super League 2024/2025 season.
Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 2–1 Tianjin Teda
Wuhan Three Towns beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 in Super League on April 26, 2024.
Goals: Pedro Henrique (34'), A. Ademi (38' pen), Deng Hanwen (57').
Wuhan Three Towns controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.
The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.