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Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
6/7/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Puwan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns36%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.52
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.39
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
60%
Wuhan Three Towns or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
64%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
17%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
78%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
45%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
80%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
48%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
47%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.78 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
36%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Wuhan Three Towns beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 6-0 in Super League on June 7, 2022.

The match was played at Puwan Stadium in Dalian.