Wuhan Three Towns II 2–1 Guangxi Lanhang

Wuhan Three Towns II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guangxi Lanhang

7/5/2025

League Two · Round 18Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns II40%

×Draw31%

Guangxi Lanhang28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three Towns IIExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Lanhang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.85

Wuhan Three Towns II

1.07

Guangxi Lanhang

0.85

Wuhan Three Towns II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

0.64

creates per match

0.88

0.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns II

0.64

Guangxi Lanhang

0.88

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns II

0.82

Guangxi Lanhang

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns II ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns II or draw

72%

Wuhan Three Towns II or Guangxi Lanhang

69%

Draw or Guangxi Lanhang

60%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+

16%

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals

66%

Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals

29%

Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals

9%

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

57%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

21%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)

59%

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns II at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 0.64 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuhan Three Towns II scores more

40%

level

31%

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

28%

Wuhan Three Towns II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff