Wuhan Jiangda W 0–4 Suwon FMC W: Result & Stats

Wuhan Jiangda W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Suwon FMC W

3/29/2026

AFC Women's Champions League · Quarter-finalsHankou Cultural Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wuhan Jiangda W36%

×Draw24%

Suwon FMC W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Jiangda WExpected goals in this matchSuwon FMC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Wuhan Jiangda W

1.50

Suwon FMC W

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangda W

1.33

Suwon FMC W

1.67

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangda W

1.50

Suwon FMC W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Jiangda W+0.00on par

Suwon FMC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangda W ↓

Suwon FMC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangda W or draw

60%

Wuhan Jiangda W or Suwon FMC W

76%

Draw or Suwon FMC W

64%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangda W wins by 2+

17%

Suwon FMC W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangda W 1+ goals

78%

Wuhan Jiangda W 2+ goals

44%

Wuhan Jiangda W 3+ goals

19%

Suwon FMC W 1+ goals

79%

Suwon FMC W 2+ goals

47%

Suwon FMC W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangda W (draw refunded)

48%

Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangda W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Suwon FMC W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangda W attack 1.33 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Suwon FMC W attack 1.67 + Wuhan Jiangda W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wuhan Jiangda W scores more

36%

level

24%

Suwon FMC W scores more

40%

Suwon FMC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suwon FMC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff