Wuhan Jiangda W vs Abu Dhabi Country W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Wuhan Jiangda W35%
Abu Dhabi Country W43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Abu Dhabi Country W creates 12% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes72
- No28
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wuhan Jiangda W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wuhan Jiangda W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches
Abu Dhabi Country W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wuhan Jiangda W attack 1.33 + Abu Dhabi Country W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79
Abu Dhabi Country W attack 2.50 + Wuhan Jiangda W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Abu Dhabi Country W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Abu Dhabi Country W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Naegohyang W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
Nasaf W
Melbourne City W
Ispe W
Stallion W
Lion City W
Suwon FMC WWuhan Jiangda W
East Bengal W
BGC Asian Scholars W
Etihad Club W
Kaohsiung W
Hồ Chí Minh City W
Al Nassr W
RTC W
Bam Khatoon W
Khovd Western W
Kitchee W
Phnom Penh W
Sdyushor Si W
Kelana W
Armed Police Force W
Master W
Strykers WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Wuhan Jiangda W host Abu Dhabi Country W on Thursday, 3 October 2024 at 08:00. The match is part of the AFC Women's Champions League 2024/2025 season.
AFC Women's Champions League: Wuhan Jiangda W 1–2 Abu Dhabi Country W
Abu Dhabi Country W beat Wuhan Jiangda W 2-1 in AFC Women's Champions League on October 3, 2024.
The match was played at Hankou Culture Sports Centre in Wuhan.