Wuhan Jiangcheng 1–1 Zibo Qisheng: Result & Stats

Wuhan Jiangcheng

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zibo Qisheng

11/9/2022

League Two · Relegation Round - 3Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng36%

×Draw30%

Zibo Qisheng34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan JiangchengExpected goals in this matchZibo Qisheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.01

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.06

Zibo Qisheng

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.05

creates per match

0.61

1.42

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.05

Zibo Qisheng

0.61

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.42

Zibo Qisheng

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Zibo Qisheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw

66%

Wuhan Jiangcheng or Zibo Qisheng

70%

Draw or Zibo Qisheng

64%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+

14%

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals

65%

Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals

29%

Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals

9%

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

64%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

27%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)

52%

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more

36%

level

30%

Zibo Qisheng scores more

34%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff